Firefox OS doesn’t stand a chance

As an idealistic thought experiment, the truly open Firefox OS (formerly Boot 2 Gecko) is captivating — but in reality, as it prepares to enter one of the world’s most fiercely competitive markets, its chance of success is close to nil.

In a nutshell, Firefox OS is a Linux-based OS that boots up into a Gecko-based environment that looks like the lovechild of iOS and Android. Every user-facing element of Firefox OS, from the UI (Gaia), to the dialer, to the apps, is programmed using open web technologies — HTML, JavaScript, and CSS — and rendered using Gecko, the exact same rendering engine used by desktop and mobile versions of the Firefox web browser. If you imagine a smartphone-sized computer that automatically loads Firefox after boot-up, and the only apps you can run are web apps, then that’s a fairly good analogy of Firefox OS.

The initial drive behind Firefox OS  was to broaden the horizon of open web standards, to add new functionality to HTML5, JavaScript, and CSS — such as low-level access to cameras, radios, and other hardware — so that web apps could be as functional as native, compiled apps. At some point, someone at Mozilla decided to turn this project into a full-blown operating system. Alcatel and ZTE are on board to make Firefox OS smartphones, and mobile carriers around the world are whooping, cheering, and clamoring to cast off their shackles of the iOS oppressor and embrace the Fox.

We weren’t at the meeting when Mozilla decided to make Boot 2 Gecko an actual smartphone OS, but I have a pretty good idea of how it probably went down: “The smartphone market is dominated by two draconian ecosystems, iOS and Android. Somebody needs to save those poor, hapless users who have no alternative but to continue selling their souls to their corporate overlords. We did it once in 2004 when we unseated the megalomaniacal Microsoft Internet Explorer, and by Jove we’ll do it again!”

The problem is, of course, is that the current smartphone market couldn’t be further removed from Browser War I and II. When Firefox charged down the grassy hill wielding nothing more than a claymore and some garish face paint, Microsoft hadn’t updated Internet Explorer 6 in over three years. The world wide web, with its penchant for new and disruptive technologies, was eager for change — and along came Firefox. Faced with a rapidly diminishing market share, Microsoft finally pulled its finger out and released IE7 in 2006 — some five years after IE6′s release — but by that point it was too late.

I can see Mozilla’s point: If the walled gardens of iOS and Android go unchecked, we’ll have another Internet Explorer-like situation on our hands. It’s just not that simple, though. There is so much competition in the mobile space right now. Yes, iOS and Android have the lion’s share of the market, but there’s also RIM OS, Windows Phone, , Ubuntu, Bada, Symbian, Brew, WebOS, and MeeGo — and that’s just off the top of my head.

When Firefox squared up against Internet Explorer, it stood alone in a roiling sea of scrolling marquees. It was life or death for the web. Firefox would either succeed in beating back Microsoft, or the web would be plunged into a monotheistic dark age. Today, if iOS falters, there are 10 other mobile operating systems that can step into breach. If Google goes off the rails, another organization can simply take up the Android stewardship. Mozilla’s concept of an open operating system that’s completely removed from commercial pressures is noble, but at the same time I don’t see how it can succeed in today’s hyper-competitive marketplace.